Why fans shouldn't fret over this stat from Royals' Bobby Witt Jr.

Before 2023, only two players had hit at least 30 home runs and stolen 50 or more bases in a season — Cincinnati's Eric Davis in 1987 and Pittsburgh's Barry Bonds in 1990. Last season, Atlanta's Ronald Acuna Jr. added his name to the list, and going into September, it looked like Kansas City's Bobby Witt Jr. had a chance to join the exclusive club, too.

By the end of August, Witt had 27 homers and 38 stolen bases. By Sept. 18, he had hit two more dingers and swiped 10 more bases, putting him one home run and two stolen bases away from the 30/50 club. 

At the time, the Royals were wrapping up a dismal 106-loss season and didn't have much to play for, and there wasn't much for Kansas City fans to be excited about — except Witt and the possibility of him joining the 30/50 club. 

Throughout September, whenever Witt reached first base, there was a good chance he was going to take off for second as soon as possible after reaching first. By mid-month, everyone knew it, including opponents. 

Over the next seven games, Witt was stalled at 29 home runs and 48 steals. He'd been caught stealing three times, and there weren't many more games to go. Then he stole No. 49 during the 159th game and hit his 30th homer a day later. He had two more games to steal that elusive 50th base. 

It wasn't meant to be. He singled in the 161st game and promptly got thrown out in an attempt to steal second. In the final game of the season, he tripled and singled, but was again caught trying to swipe his 50th base. Season over. Witt missed out on joining the exclusive 50/30 club by one stolen base.

The result of this is that despite stealing 49 bases, Witt also led the American League with 15 caught stealing attempts. Six of those 15 came in September and five of those came during those last 11 games of the season, when everyone watching the games knew he was running once he got to first. 

Royals fans should not be worried about this stat, and fantasy baseball players shouldn't put a lot of stock into it either. Before those last 11 games, Witt had 48 steals in 58 attempts, good for an excellent 83 percent success rate. It's probably more accurate to throw out those last 11 games when evaluating Witt for 2024, since everyone knew he'd be looking to run.

Witt is still going to steal a lot of bases and at a high percentage. Per Baseball Savant, he is the second-fastest player in the majors, behind Elly De La Cruz. He still finished fourth in the majors in steals. At 23, he's still a few years away from his speed being sapped by age.

If you love stolen bases, root for the Royals or relish fantasy baseball, count on Witt for a high number of steals in 2024 and beyond. He's young, fast and plays on a team that loves to run. Don't let that league-leading 15 caught stealing number fool you. Witt will be a great base stealer for years to come.